Sunday, April 14, 2013

Finishing school, Chinese style

Be polite even though I'm super rich and busy? Sara Jane Ho puts China's very important people to a global test.?

By Peter Ford,?Staff Writer / April 10, 2013

Chinese women have a chat near a plum tree at a public park in Beijing Sunday.

Andy Wong/AP

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How?s this for a Chinese start-up? Finishing school.

Skip to next paragraph Peter Ford

Beijing Bureau Chief

Peter Ford is The Christian Science Monitor?s Beijing Bureau Chief. He covers news and features throughout China and also makes reporting trips to Japan and the Korean peninsula.

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Sara Jane Ho, a well-groomed young woman from Hong Kong, has just launched what she calls Beijing?s first ?high end boutique finishing school? to teach China?s nouveau riche how to behave.

Good manners are not necessarily deeply instilled in your average Chinese citizen, and here I am being as polite as Ms. Ho teaches her students to be. But as she points out, only 50 years ago, people here ?were fighting to get to the front of the food ration line, for survival. They were not thinking of manners.?

Today, though, wealthy Chinese businesswomen, housewives, and ladies of leisure are anxious to learn the social skills of their Western counterparts. And for a cool $15,000 for a 12-day course, Ho will initiate them into the mysteries of foreign etiquette at her Institute Sarita.

She has the background ? both a business degree from Harvard and an etiquette diploma from the Institute Villa Pierrefeu, a Swiss finishing school ? and she covers all the bases.

One moment her clients, gathered in Ho?s plush offices in the Park Hyatt Residences in downtown Beijing, will be learning what ?black tie? means; the next moment they are practicing the correct pronunciation of ?Louis Vuitton? or being given the ?Introduction to Expensive Sports? course, which explains why they ought to enjoy horseback riding.

Predictably, perhaps, for women accustomed to eating even the grandest banquet with a simple pair of chopsticks, laying a Western table and learning how to handle knives and forks are especially puzzling skills. Nor does Ho make it easy: Her students have to remember such arcane details as the difference between the fork for extracting snails from their shells and the fork used to eat oysters.

But Ho says she also hopes to give etiquette a deeper meaning, to teach ?the philosophy behind the mechanics.?

?Good manners go along with good morals,? she preaches, with a nod to Confucius. ?Virtuous people do not commit murder ? and nor do they behave in obnoxious ways when they travel.?

In the end, she points out, good manners are the same the world over once you get past such questions of which hand you should hold your fork in. ?Good manners means respect for other people,? says Ho, and that is something that some of China?s new rich find even harder to learn than how to distinguish a Californian Chardonnay from a Bordeaux claret.

?I tell them [my clients] that they have to treat people as people no matter who they are speaking to,? she says. ?You are not above other people just because you are in a rush or have more money. But that takes a long time to learn.??

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/csmonitor/globalnews/~3/OvY17L2r11o/Finishing-school-Chinese-style

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Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Japanese Finance Ministry Warns Surge In JGB Volatility May Lead ...

If Friday's session is any indication of what to expect in a few minutes when JGB trading resumes, we are about to have a doozy of a session on our hands (especially with Interactive Brokers already announcing all intraday margins on all Japanese products for Monday trading have been lifted). As a reminder, the 10Y JGB suffered only its second most volatile trading day ever this past Friday when the yield plunged by half (!) to 0.30%, then doubled in a matter of minutes to 0.60% - a 13 sigma move - and the bond trading session was interrupted by two trading halts when it seemed for a minute that the BOJ may lose all control of the bond market. Well, judging by the absolutely ridiculous moves in the USDJPY as of this moment, with the pair soaring 70 pips in a matter of seconds, we are about to have precisely the kind of insanely volatile session that the Japanese Finance Ministry itself warned may lead to a wholesale selloff in JGBs, offsetting even the New Normal Mrs Watanabe kneejerk which is to merely frontrun the BOJ in buying JGBs. Why? Because with implied vol exploding, VaR-driven models will tell banks to just dump bonds as they have become too volatile to hold on their books. The problem is that with trillions and trillions of JGBs held by banks, insurance companies and pension firms, there just not may be anyone out there to buy them.

This is from the October 26, 2012 minutes of the Meeting of JGB market special participants, just as the insanity known as Abenomics was being first revealed to the world.

Another thing to be noted here is the fact that as a risk management method, many domestic financial institutions adopt the VaR approach, which is designed to calculate the amount at risk on the basis of volatility. Under the present circumstances, we can determine the amount at risk to be small because of not great volatility. But if the volatility moves up or down in the order of 0.5% to 1.5%, it will increase the amount at risk, forcing domestic financial institutions to reduce their JGB holdings.

0.5% or 1.5%? Try ten times that. The chart below shows the implied vol of the 10Y JGB in recent days. If any financial institution still adhering to a VaR approach hasn't puked its bond holdings, it will shortly.

Perhaps it is not, then surprising, that the one rhetorical question the MOF had was the following:

Here, we have one question. What will happen to interest rates payable on 15-Year Floating-Rate Bonds or Nonmarketable JGBs for Retail Investors in case the 10-Year Bond auctions are suspended?

Yes, what will happen if the BOJ has managed to literally break the bond market?

?

Away from the dramtic shifts in JGBs, the last 3 days have seen the 2nd largest weakening in JPY in 25 years...

?

...and most notably the relationship between JPY (as a funding currency for every and any risk trade around the world) has experienced a rather interesting transition change in the last month...

Green Oval = Normal: JPY weakness funds FX carry to buy stocks and thus bond yields rise.

Orange Oval = Transition: unwinding of those trades led to JPY strength...

Red = New correlation: the BoJ drops the shock-and-awe hand grenade and confirms JPY investors' concerns that their wealth is being destroyed - the Treasury buying begins and stocks get sold.

...or perhaps the 'strength' in JPY relative to EUR in recent weeks (the ultimate JPY carry trade) is now being squeezed back to reconnect with the US equity market

?

Perhaps the post-Lehman decoupling between USDJPY and the long-end of the JGB curve is back... which means JGBs imply 110 USDJPY is coming. Interestingly the collapse in the JGB curve took it back to the same time when USDJPY was here last - mid 2009...

?

?

Charts: Bloomberg

Your rating: None Average: 4.8 (12 votes)

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-07/japanese-finance-ministry-warns-surge-jgb-volatility-may-lead-sharp-bond-selloff

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Too Short: Charged With Four Misdemeanors After Arrest, Failed Escape Bid

Source: http://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/2013/04/too-short-charged-with-four-misdemeanors-after-arrest-failed-esc/

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Sunday, April 7, 2013

A 'light switch' in the brain illuminates neural networks

Friday, April 5, 2013

There are cells in your brain that recognize very specific places, and have that as one of their main jobs. These cells, called place cells, are found in an area behind your temple called the hippocampus. While these cells must be sent information from nearby cells to do their job, so far no one has been able to determine exactly what kind of nerve cells, or neurons, work with place cells to craft the code they create for each location. Neurons come in many different types with specialized functions. Some respond to edges and borders, others to specific locations, others act like a compass and react to which way you turn your head.

Now, researchers at the Kavli Institute for Systems Neuroscience at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology have combined a range of advanced techniques that enable them to identify which neurons communicate with each other at different times in the rat brain, and in doing so, create the animal's sense of location. Their findings are published in the 5 April issue of Science.

"A rat's brain is the size of a grape. Inside there are about fifty million neurons that are connected together at a staggering 450 billion places (roughly)," explains Professor Edvard Moser, director of the Kavli Institute. "Inside this grape-sized brain are areas on each side that are smaller than a grape seed, where we know that memory and the sense of location reside. This is also where we find the neurons that respond to specific places, the place cells. But from which cells do these place cells get information?"

The problem is, of course, that researchers cannot simply cut open the rat brain to see which cells have had contact. That would be the equivalent of taking a giant pile of cooked spaghetti, chopping it into little pieces, and then trying to figure out how the various spaghetti strands were tangled together before the pile was cut up.

A job like this requires the use of a completely different set of neural tools, which is where the "light switches" come into play.

Neurons share many similarities with electric cables when they send signals to each other. They send an electric current in one direction ? from the "body" of the neuron and down a long arm, called the axon, which goes to other nerve cells. Place cells thus get their small electric signals from a whole series of such arms.

So how do light switches play into all of this?

"What we did first was to give these nerve arms a harmless viral infection," Moser says. "We designed a unique virus that does not cause disease, but that acts as a pathway for delivering genes to specific cells. The virus creeps into the neurons, crawls up to the nucleus of the cell, and uses the nerve cell's own factory to make the genetic recipe that we gave to the virus to carry."

The genetic recipe enabled the cell to make the equivalent of a light switch. Our eyes actually contain the same kind of biological light switch, which allows us to see. The virus infection converts neurons that have previously existed only in darkness, deep inside the brain, to now be sensitive to light.

Then the researchers inserted optical fibres in the rat's brain to transmit light to the different unidentified cells that now had light switches in them. They also implanted thin microelectrodes down between the cells so they could detect the signals sent through the axons every time the light from the optical fibre was turned on.

"Now we had everything set up, with light switches installed in cells around the place cells, a lamp, and a way to record the activity," Moser said.

The researchers then turned the lights on and off more than ten thousand times in their rat lab partners, while they monitored and recorded the activity of hundreds of individual cells in the rats' grape-sized brains. The researchers did this research while the rats ran around in a metre-square box, gathering treats. As the rats explored their box and found the treats, the researchers were able to use the light-sensitive cells to figure out which cells were feeding information to the place cells as the rat's brain created the map of where the rat had been.

When the researchers put together all the information afterwards they concluded that there is a whole range of different specialized cells that together provide place cells their information. The brain's GPS ? its sense of place ? is created by signals from head direction cells, border cells, cells that have no known function in creating location points, and grid cells. Place cells thus receive both information about the rat's surroundings and landmarks, but also continuously update their own movement, which is actually independent on sensory input.

"One mystery is the role that the cells that are not part of the sense of direction play. They send signals to place cells, but what do they actually do?" wonders Moser.

"We also wonder how the cells in the hippocampus are able to sort out the various signals they receive. Do they 'listen' to all of the cells equally effectively all the time, or are there some cells that get more time than others to 'talk' to place cells?"

###

Norwegian University of Science and Technology: http://www.ntnu.edu

Thanks to Norwegian University of Science and Technology for this article.

This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.

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Source: http://www.labspaces.net/127609/A__light_switch__in_the_brain_illuminates_neural_networks

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Monday, March 11, 2013

Time spin-off highlights risks facing magazines

LOS ANGELES (AP) ? From Sports Illustrated to People to its namesake magazine, Time Inc., was always an innovator. But now when the troubled magazine industry is facing its greatest challenge, the company Henry Luce founded is struggling to find its way in a digital world.

Time Warner Inc.'s decision to shed its Time Inc. magazine unit last week underscores the challenges facing an industry that remains wedded to glossy paper even as the use of tablet computers, e-readers and smartphones explodes.

Although the new devices might seem to present an array of opportunity for Time Inc.'s 95 magazine titles, many publishers have found the digital transition troublesome. Digital editions of magazines represented just 2.4 percent of all U.S. circulation in the last half of 2012, or about 7.9 million copies, according to the Alliance for Audited Media.

Although that number more than doubled from a year earlier, it's hardly gangbusters growth, considering that the number of tablets in the U.S. also more than doubled last year to 64.8 million, according to research firm IHS.

The fact that so few tablet owners are buying magazines on their devices is a concern because both ad and circulation revenue from print editions have fallen more than 20 percent since their peak near the middle of the last decade. And, according to forecasts, there's no recovery in sight.

"We have to get much better at capturing those (digital) readers," said Mary Berner, president of The Association of Magazine Media.

Before publishers can accomplish that, they need to address a number of problems, experts say. First, the range of free content on the Web has given some readers the impression that it's not necessary to pay for the digital versions of magazine stories. Also, there's no industry standard for pricing. Publishers aren't in agreement over whether to include free access to digital copies as part of a print subscription.

There are technical challenges, too. It's been difficult for magazine makers to create compelling digital editions that fit every screen size and resolution.

Berner acknowledges that customer confusion is part of what's preventing the magazine industry from selling more digital copies. She is working with industry players like Time Inc., Hearst Corp., Conde Nast and Meredith Corp. to standardize both the format of magazines and the way they are sold.

"There used to be a couple ways you used to be able to get a magazine: you could subscribe or buy it at the newsstand. Now there's 25 ways. Joe Average consumer just isn't that clear on it yet," she said. "The confusing part is hurting."

Advertisers are making matters worse. The ad industry has been slow to warm to the notion that they still need to pay top dollar to advertise in the tablet editions of magazines, even though much cheaper website ads are just a finger-swipe away.

But many magazines still command significant premiums. A full-page ad in Elle magazine, for instance, costs $155,680 to reach the readers of 1.1 million copies, or about $141 for every 1,000, according to a rate card that the magazine posted online.

Compare that to a 30-second ad during this year's Super Bowl, which ?at most? cost $37 per 1,000 TV households, or $4 million to reach 108 million TV sets, according to CBS. A typical website ad costs in the single-digit dollars per 1,000 viewers, although pricing varies by ad size and other features.

Magazine insiders say the price of their ad space is worth it because ads reach a targeted, engaged audience that actually wants to see the commercial come-ons. Even so, advertisers bristle at the idea that tablet editions command the same price premium as print pages.

"The costs per thousand are out of whack," said George Janson, director of print for GroupM, a subsidiary of advertising agency giant WPP, whose clients include Ikea, Mars Inc., Marriott and Xerox. "The advertising challenge is there haven't been a lot of metrics. There's very little accountability. That's starting to change now at the advertisers' insistence."

The magazine industry's slim but growing digital subscriber base could help convince advertisers of the value of magazines. Research firm eMarketer predicts that while print magazine ad revenue will remain flat at about $15.1 billion from 2011 to 2016, digital magazine ad revenue will grow from $2.7 billion to $4.1 billion over the same period.

"Tablets have reinvigorated magazine ad revenues," said eMarketer spokesman Clark Fredricksen.

But even as overall magazine advertising revenue grows, it's not expanding nearly as fast as U.S. ad spending as a whole. The predicted turnaround won't return the industry to pre-recession levels ?and it may come too late for Time Warner Inc.

Revenue at its Time Inc. unit slipped to $3.4 billion in 2012, about 38 percent below its peak in 2004. Operating profit declined to $420 million, down by more than half of the $934 million posted eight years earlier.

Analysts say spinning off the magazines into a separate, publicly traded company reduces Time Warner's risk. On Friday, two days after Time Warner announced the spin-off, its shares hit a 52-week high of $57.85.

Tony Wible, an analyst with Janney Capital Markets, said the spin-off frees Time Warner from the uncertainty of the magazine industry's digital transition.

"It has the potential to save money, increase revenue per ad, improve measurement, and increase distribution," he wrote in a research note, "but it also competes with a growing number of free online publications and there may be few ad slots in the new medium."

In other words, it's better for parent Time Warner to separate itself now.

Reed Phillips, the CEO of media company advisory firm DeSilva + Phillips, said that for the parent company, there is too much risk involved if the magazines stay.

"Will you come out on the other end as large and as profitable as the current company? There's a lot of concern," he said. "Because of the volatility, that's why Time Warner wants to spin off Time Inc."

Meanwhile, magazine publishers are carefully parsing consumer behavior data to learn how they might make digital magazines more attractive to readers and advertisers. They want to know which ads attract consumers and how long readers engage with an ad. They are trying to learn how people read magazines (So far, it's still front to back). It's still not clear whether such data is valuable to advertisers and worth paying more.

"This is a fairly early stage business," said Liz Schimel, the chief digital officer at Meredith Corp., which was in talks to combine with Time Inc. before talks were called off. "We're still in lots of conversations about models and features and metrics."

Magazines don't have a lot of time to figure the digital transition out. TV and digital ad spending is growing quickly, and there are more ways than ever to track down consumers and get a company's message in front of them.

"It's not just print and TV and radio," said Brenda White, a senior vice president in charge of publishing industry ad spending at Starcom USA, a subsidiary of ad agency giant Publicis Groupe, whose clients include Facebook Inc. and Google Inc. "There are all these different digital channels: mobile, tablets, social. Publishing companies have had to evolve their business models to keep up."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/time-spin-off-highlights-risks-facing-magazines-143712231--finance.html

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Thursday, February 21, 2013

Looking ahead at the year to come | The Sauce | Bringing you the ...

Looking ahead at the year to come

By Martin Conboy

As we know, economic strategists often make wildly inaccurate forecasts. At the beginning of 2011 for example, the sages were predicting that the Australian stock market would break through the 5000 barrier. In reality, it was closer to 4000 at the end of the year, falling 15% instead of rising as predicted.

This year 2013 the pundits are predicting the market to more or less stay level. However as I write the market has already broken through the 5000-point barrier. This breakthrough is an important psychological barrier as it relates directly to the missing ingredient in our economy and that is confidence.

Adding weight to this is a measure of consumer confidence, by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank, that surged to its highest in 26 months in February as consumers become more optimistic about the economy and their own finances, suggesting past interest rates cuts might finally be lifting spirits.

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates four times in 2012. The official cash rate is now at 3%, which is as low as rates fell to during the global financial crisis. Most economists are predicting that the RBA will cut further, although given the news above it would seem to suggest that rates might stabilize.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said a rally on local share markets and better current economic news from overseas may have helped boost consumer sentiment.

??Sentiment may have been buoyed by a strong start to the year for financial markets,?? he said. ??News from offshore has also been broadly supportive. The report is welcome news with the solid gain in confidence the most promising sign yet that lower interest rates are starting to generate more positive traction with consumers.?

The other issue that we have to deal with this year is a federal election, I?m not sure why but businesses seem to become very shy about making business investment decisions in an election year, I can only suppose it relates to what people perceive will happen to the economy after one side or the other gets into power. The election will be fought on a number of issues and as the year rolls ahead we will hear more on this front. The challenge for businesses is that the fog will not clear until after the election in September. That?s a long time for an economy to be in a holding pattern.

Having said that there are some external factors that will have an influence on our economy. The Australian dollar is still strong relative to other currencies as Australia is still being seen as a safe haven. There are some pundits who believe that Australian dollar could trade as high as US $1.25 this year. This will negatively impact industry especially in the manufacturing, education, tourism sectors that are still suffering from the effects of a high dollar.

Moreover when it comes to outsourcing as I have stated on many occasions our high dollar only amplifies how much less expensive it is to consider offshoring ones business processes. On the other hand if our dollar rises too much it could put pressure on the mining sector as our raw materials would become prohibitively expensive. Besides being seen as a safe haven this contrasts with the fact that almost every other country in the world wants to devalue its own currency and we only have to look to what?s happening currently in Japan as evidence of that.

There is no doubt about the health of the Chinese economy and veracity of its economic statistics. It recently released export figures that showed a jump of 14.1% over the past year. The increase didn?t however match goods movements? reports on imports by trading partners according to UBS. Other statistics which should conform to ?Benford?s law? do not.(Benford?s Law could be used as an indicator of accounting fraud) Benford?s law has been used to show that the macro economic data the Greek government reported to the European Union before entering the Eurozone was shown to be probably fraudulent, albeit he is after the country joined. These inconsistencies do not prove China is manipulating data, but it is anecdotal evidence.

The US economy slowdown from mid-2012, partly due to the US election and the unprecedented focus on the outcome seems to be behind us now as is the fiscal cliff for the moment and their economy is starting to show signs of picking up. The Dow Jones is just below its record high, and some indices are at new highs. The Dow Jones Transport index is seen as a reflection of the state of the US economy. It consists of 20 companies involved in various transport related activities: airlines, railroads, trucking and delivery services dominate the index. It recently reached a record high, which should mean that the US economy is getting stronger. Thus we should see a modestly strengthening US economy as we move into 2013 and that is a good thing.

The real risk for the global economy is Europe, specifically Spain and Greece who are in a depression, the Eurozone?s fiscal compact is not working and any further austerities measures will only make things worse with unsustainable levels of unemployment in some European countries. There is a ticking time bomb in sovereign bonds that will soon need to be refinanced. There seems to be a propensity for European Governments to ignore some of the issues and somehow muddle their way out of the mess.

The other lucking issue will be the Middle East, which is showing no signs of stabilizing as well as new fronts opening up in North Africa in the war against terrorists.

So on balance and with all due consideration I think we will see further growth in outsourcing from the Australian market, as predicted in our 2012 Australian BPO industry report. I also believe that we will see the rise of the back-office and shared services as a way for Australian organisations to take layers of cost out of their operating structure to offset the high cost of doing business in Australia.

Source: http://thesauce.net.au/looking-ahead-at-the-year-to-come/

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Monday, February 11, 2013

LA fugitive manhunt brings heavier Grammy policing

LOS ANGELES (AP) ? There is a heavier-than-usual police presence at the Grammy Awards because of a dangerous former Los Angeles police officer believed to have killed three people in a region-wide rampage this week.

Police Cmdr. Andy Smith says the always heavily guarded Grammys will see even more officers at Staples Center Sunday as the hunt for 33-year-old fugitive Christopher Dorner continues.

The search is focused in mountains 80 miles away, but police say Dorner could be anywhere, and most of the targets he threatened in an online manifesto have ties to the LAPD, which typically has a visible presence at the Grammys.

Scores of officers are outside Staples, others are stationed on a hotel roof across the street and Grammy participants' credentials are being checked constantly.

Dorner's manifesto mentions many celebrities, but makes no threats to entertainers.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/la-fugitive-manhunt-brings-heavier-grammy-policing-011525540.html

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